Predicting Closure of Religious Universities in TX & OK

Based on the number of times below that the three institutions were identified as struggling in what Gary Stocker and I consider to be important factors to university viability, I am predicting the following 3 universities will not survive more than a few years without significant changes in their current trajectory. For the record, I do not want these colleges to close – I am just trying to learn how to make predictions on college closures and wanted to make myself try.

1. Southwestern Christian College (TX) – 88 total students, enrollment drop 41%, 24% down in T&F revenue, department devoted to loan default prevention, 30% of 2018 graduates in default, no link to federally required data on homepage
2. Southwestern Christian University (OK) – enrollment drop 41%, 9% 4-year graduation rate, , 25% 6-year graduation rate, 72% drop in 4-year graduation rate, 20% down in T&F revenue, 17% of 2018 graduates in default, (they do have federally required student disclosure data)
3. Baptist University of the Americas (TX) – 6% 4-year graduation rate, 67% drop in 4-year graduation rate, 109 total students, 26% of 2018 graduates in default

If you have not been to Gary Stocker’s website (or app), College Viability, I suggest you check it out. I used one of this publicly shared reports to create the 7 different perspectives on struggling religious universities in Texas and Oklahoma. Gary is wise enough to know he cannot tell us which of these colleges will close first, but he does provide enough data that allows us to know how each of these colleges are most struggling and in need of help. Go here if you would like to view this report or other reports he does for other states in the U.S..

Highest Percentage of Enrollment Drop of Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

When it comes to the greatest percentage decrease in enrollment, which may be an even more significant indicator of troubles, different universities emerge:

1. 42% down – Baptist University of the Americas (TX)
2. 41% down – Southwestern Christian College (TX)
3. 41% down – Southwestern Christian University (OK)
4. 40% down – College of Biblical Studies-Houston (TX)

Great Number of Enrolled Students Decrease of Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

Private, religious colleges who have decreased the most in total enrollment over the most recent 8 years for which data was available. Each of these 4 colleges lost ~500 or more students.

1. 891 students less – Mid-America Christian University (OK)
2. 595 students less – Wayland Baptist University (TX)
3. 574 students less – Oklahoma Baptist University (OK)
4. 497 students less – Dallas Baptist University (TX)

Lowest 4-Year Graduation Rates of Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

1. 6% 4-year graduation rate – Baptist University of the Americas (TX)
2. 9% 4-year graduation rate – Southwestern Christian University (OK)
3. 9% 4-year graduation rate – Wayland Baptist University (TX)
4. 12% 4-year graduation rate – Jarvis Christian University (TX)

Greatest Percentage Drop in 4-year Graduation Rates of Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

1. 72% drop in 4-year graduation rate – Southwestern Christian University (OK)
2. 67% drop in 4-year graduation rate – Baptist University of the Americas (TX)
3. 50% drop in 4-year graduation rate – Wayland Baptist University (TX)
4. 28% drop in 4-year graduation rate – Southwestern Adventist University (TX)

Lowest Retention of 1st to 2nd Year Students at Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

1. 33% – Arlington Baptist University (TX)
2. 34% – Dallas Christian College (TX)
3. 39% – Wayland Baptist University (TX)
4. 41% – Jarvis Christian University (TX)

Smallest Endowment per Student at Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

1. $1,227/student – Dallas Christian College (TX)
2. $2,501/student – College of Biblical Studies – Houston (TX)
3. $2,716/student – Mid-America Christian University (OK)
4. $5,874/student – Southwestern Christian University (OK)

Greatest percentage lost in Tuition and Fee Revenue at Religious Institutions in Texas and Oklahoma (for the most recent 8 years data was available)

1. 35% down in T&F $ – Wayland Baptist University (TX)
2. 24% down in T&F $ – Southwestern Christian College (TX)
3. 20% down in T&F $ – Southwestern Christian University (OK)
4. 18% down in T&F $ – Mid-America Christian University (OK)